A New Economic Strategy for the USA: A Framework of Alternative Development Notions

This paper seeks to provide a new economic strategy for the United States while considering a range of development-related impediments to the country’s recent economic performance. It is argued here that strategic industrial policy needs to come to the center stage if local production growth, competency upgrading, and competitiveness improvement are to be aggressively pursued. The first section outlines the present context of the US economy by discussing economic and socio-cultural aspects. The second main section frames an alternative development paradigm for the United States. Policy recommendations are discussed in the third section. Some brief conclusions end the paper.     

Can machine learning approaches predict corporate bankruptcy? Evidence from a qualitative experimental design

Bankruptcy prediction has received a growing interest in corporate finance and risk management recently. Although numerous studies in the literature have dealt with various statistical and artificial intelligence classifiers, their performance in credit risk forecasting needs to be further scrutinized compared to other methods. In the spirit of Chen, Härdle and Moro (2011, Quantitative Finance), we design an empirical study to assess the effectiveness of various machine learning topologies trained with big data approaches and qualitative, rather than quantitative, information as input variables. The experimental results from a ten-fold cross-validation methodology demonstrate that a generalized regression neural topology yields an accuracy measurement of 99.96%, a sensitivity measure of 99.91% and specificity of 100%. Indeed, this specific model outperformed multi-layer back-propagation networks, probabilistic neural networks, radial basis functions and regression trees, as well as other advanced classifiers. The utilization of advanced nonlinear classifiers based on big data methodologies and machine learning training generates outperforming results compared to traditional methods for bankruptcy forecasting and risk measurement.     

Stochastic frontier models with correlated effects

Journal of Productivity Analysis - In this paper we provide several new specifications within the true random effects model as well as stochastic frontiers models estimated with GLS and MLE that...     

A flexible time-varying specification of the technical inefficiency effects model

The temporal pattern of technical efficiency in the technical inefficiency effects model, as modeled by Battese and Coelli (Empir Econ 20:325–332, 1995), is rather restrictive. Specifically, it a priori imposes a common pattern upon all firms in the sample, which in addition is monotonic over time. Obviously this is an undesirable implication of the model especially when there is evidence of strong firm heterogeneity and/or a long time span. To overcome this shortcoming, the present paper incorporates the Cornwell et al. (J Econom 46:185–200, 1990) flexible specification of the temporal pattern of technical efficiency into technical inefficiency effects model. The proposed formulation is then applied to the agricultural sector of the EU and US, during the period 1973–1993. The empirical result support the proposed formulation as quite different temporal patterns of technical efficiency have been found for the ten countries included in the analysis. We would like to thank an anonymous referee and an associate editor for valuable suggestions in an earlier version of the paper.     

On the predictability of time-varying VAR and DSGE models

Over the last few years, there has been a growing interest in DSGE modelling for predicting macroeconomic fluctuations and conducting quantitative policy analysis. Hybrid DSGE models have become popular for dealing with some of the DSGE misspecifications as they are able to solve the trade-off between theoretical coherence and empirical fit. However, these models are still linear and they do not consider time variation for parameters. The time-varying properties in VAR or DSGE models capture the inherent nonlinearities and the adaptive underlying structure of the economy in a robust manner. In this article, we present a state-space time-varying parameter VAR model. Moreover, we focus on the DSGE–VAR that combines a microfounded DSGE model with the flexibility of a VAR framework. All the aforementioned models as well simple DSGEs and Bayesian VARs are used in a comparative investigation of their out-of-sample predictive performance regarding the US economy. The results indicate that while in general the classical VAR and BVARs provide with good forecasting results, in many cases the TVP–VAR and the DSGE–VAR outperform the other models.     

An error correction almost ideal demand system for meat in Greece

This paper represents a dynamic specification of the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) based on recent developments on cointegration techniques and error correction models. Based on Greek meat consumption data over the period 1958–1993, it was found that the proposed formulation performs well on both theoretical and statistical grounds, as the theoretical properties of homogeneity and symmetry are supported by the data and the LeChatelier principle holds. Regardless of the time horizon, beef and chicken may be considered as luxuries while mutton‐lamb and pork as necessities. In the short‐run, beef was found to have price elastic demand, pork an almost unitary elasticity, whereas mutton‐lamb, chicken and sausages had inelastic demands; in the long‐run, beef, and pork were found to have a demand elasticity greater than one, whereas mutton‐lamb, chicken, and sausages still had inelastic demands. All meat items are found to be substitutes to each other except chicken and mutton‐lamb, and pork and chicken.     

Measurement of the intensity of the reforms in professions and economic activities in Greece via a composite regulation index

The institutional framework regulating professions/ economic activities of the service sector in Greece has been recently liberalised extensively, to promote competition, conform to European Community regulations and fulfil commitments under the Memoranda of Economic and Financial Policies. This paper aims to capture quantitatively this major structural reform, by measuring for the first time the degree of regulation in 90 professions/ activities affected by the relevant reform laws. The degree of regulation is measured both for the regime before and for that after the laws, and the methodology employed is that of composite regulation indices. The index values obtained are used for evaluating the extent of the reforms and estimating correlations and regressions. The results of the analysis point to the existence of significant barriers to competition before the reforms and extensive liberalisation of the regulatory framework after the adoption of the relevant laws. Moreover, the results suggest that professions/activities characterised by more stringent restrictions before the reforms tend to be characterised by a comparatively higher intensity of regulations after the reforms.